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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 34

Kick-off

Sat 17 May 2025

14:30

Venue

SIGNAL IDUNA PARK

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Borussia Dortmund Win

67%

Borussia Dortmund

1.49

18%

Draw

5.69

15%

Holstein Kiel

6.60

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

8.6%

Home win

Most likely

3 – 1

7.9%

Home win

2 – 0

6.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.74

Borussia Dortmund xG

Total xG

4.03

1.29

Holstein Kiel xG

67%
18%
15%
Borussia DortmundDrawHolstein Kiel

1.49

67%

Home win

5.69

18%

Draw

6.60

15%

Away win

Goals Markets

91%

Over 1.5

1.10

9%

Under 1.5

11.11

77%

Over 2.5

1.30

23%

Under 2.5

4.35

57%

Over 3.5

1.75

43%

Under 3.5

2.33

38%

Over 4.5

2.63

62%

Under 4.5

1.61

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

68%

BTTS Yes

1.46

32%

BTTS No

3.16

Clean Sheet

28%

Borussia Dortmund

3.63

6%

Holstein Kiel

15.44

Win to Nil

19%

Borussia Dortmund

5.39

1%

Holstein Kiel

101.92

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.8 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1
1 4.9 6.3 4.1 1.7 0.6 0.1
2 6.7 8.6 5.6 2.4 0.8 0.2
3 6.1 7.9 5.1 2.2 0.7 0.2
4 4.2 5.4 3.5 1.5 0.5 0.1
5 2.3 2.9 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.737
λ Away (xG) 1.289
Total xG 4.026
League avg home goals 1.534
League avg away goals 1.481
Borussia Dortmund attack strength 1.449
Borussia Dortmund defence strength 0.858
Holstein Kiel attack strength 1.015
Holstein Kiel defence strength 1.231
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 67 / 33