Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Borussia Dortmund face FC Augsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund host FC Augsburg at Signal Iduna Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Dortmund — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal Iduna Park.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Borussia Dortmund have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 10 past contests while FC Augsburg have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 48% versus FC Augsburg 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 55% | FC Augsburg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.58 xG and FC Augsburg 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.081 / defence 0.857 | FC Augsburg attack 1.295 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 2.023 / away 1.400. FC Augsburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Borussia Dortmund games / 40 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 18% | FC Augsburg 22%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.67 | Draw 5.56 | FC Augsburg 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.13. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.13 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.58 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.13 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 40% | FC Augsburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Signal Iduna Park • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 18% | FC Augsburg 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 73% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.58 / FC Augsburg 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.081 / def 0.857 | FC Augsburg attack 1.295 / def 1.178 | league avg home 2.023 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.58
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.55
FC Augsburg xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Signal Iduna Park.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Signal Iduna Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 60% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 22% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
Record (10 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 6W | Draws 2 | FC Augsburg 2W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.08) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.3%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
60%
1.67
18%
5.49
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
1 – 1
6.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.58
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
4.13
1.55
FC Augsburg xG
1.67
60%
Home win
5.49
18%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.68
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
8%
13.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
2%
59.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.58 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.55 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 4.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 40 games, going 26W 9D 5L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.27 PPG from 40 outings (14W 9D 17L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 15W 3D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.00 points per game from 20 outings (6W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.52 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 65%.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 26W 9D 5L in their last 40 games (2.17 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 9D 17L in their last 40 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or FC Augsburg away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.40 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Borussia Dortmund go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 40%, FC Augsburg 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Borussia Dortmund and 75% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 70% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 75% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.