Borussia Dortmund 0-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund host FC Augsburg at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 March 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Dortmund — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Dortmund 1.30 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Borussia Dortmund have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while FC Augsburg have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with FC Augsburg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 66% and FC Augsburg 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 64% | FC Augsburg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.04 xG and FC Augsburg 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.388 / defence 0.989 | FC Augsburg attack 0.978 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.386. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.388 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Borussia Dortmund games / 58 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 53% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 24%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | FC Augsburg 4.17. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 80% | FC Augsburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 53% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.04 / FC Augsburg 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.388 / def 0.989 | FC Augsburg attack 0.978 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.34
FC Augsburg xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Borussia Dortmund 0 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 53% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
Record (7 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 4W | Draws 2 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.39) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.28
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.38
1.34
FC Augsburg xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
3%
31.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.34 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 58 games, going 28W 14D 16L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.22 PPG from 58 outings (18W 17D 23L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 17W 6D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.97 points per game from 29 outings (7W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.33 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 28W 14D 16L in their last 58 games (1.69 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 18W 17D 23L in their last 58 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or FC Augsburg away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 1.97 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Borussia Dortmund go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 66%, FC Augsburg 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Borussia Dortmund and 62% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 55% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 62% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat Borussia Dortmund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Borussia Dortmund 0-1 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.04 xG and FC Augsburg 1.34 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Borussia Dortmund fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.39 / defence 0.99 against FC Augsburg attack 0.98 / defence 0.92, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 53% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 24%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 64%, FC Augsburg 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.34 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.