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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.36 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.14 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.28 / defence 0.78 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 64% | Draw 19% | Eintracht Frankfurt 17%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 64%, Eintracht Frankfurt 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.88 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights