Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.44x the league average against Bayern München's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bayern München's attack (1.68x) against Borussia Dortmund's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 2.05.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-2 (7.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
38%
2.60
23%
4.29
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
4.11
2.05
Bayern München xG
2.60
38%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.29
23%
BTTS No
4.44
Clean Sheet
13%
7.80
13%
7.81
Win to Nil
5%
20.31
5%
20.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 2.05 for Bayern München, a combined total of 4.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.