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Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over 1899 Hoffenheim.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat 1899 Hoffenheim 2-0 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.69 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.58 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.09 / defence 0.89 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.24 / defence 0.91, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 40% | Draw 24% | 1899 Hoffenheim 36%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 63%, 1899 Hoffenheim 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights