🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Borussia Dortmund face 1. FC Köln.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 33 as Borussia Dortmund welcome 1. FC Köln to Signal Iduna Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 May 2027 at 14:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Borussia Dortmund haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Borussia Dortmund's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Signal Iduna Park this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

1. FC Köln — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1. FC Köln haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

1. FC Köln's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Borussia Dortmund have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 10 past contests while 1. FC Köln have managed just 2 wins.

The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Borussia Dortmund winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 50% and 1. FC Köln 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 56% | 1. FC Köln 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.29 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.155 / defence 0.914 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.930 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.822 / away 1.468. Data: 34 Borussia Dortmund games / 34 1. FC Köln games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 61% | Draw 20% | 1. FC Köln 20%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | 1. FC Köln 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 50% | 1. FC Köln 80% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights