Bayern München 1-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayern München at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayern München vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Bayern München welcome Werder Bremen to Allianz Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 November 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayern München stand at 6W 0D 1L from 7 Bundesliga matches — 2.57 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.86 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bayern München have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayern München's home record at Allianz Arena: 3W 0D 0L from 3 Bundesliga appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 5.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Arena.
Werder Bremen — All Games: 2W 4D 1L from 7 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.43 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Werder Bremen's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 0L across 3 road games this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bayern München carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.14 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.57 vs 1.43. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Bayern München in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 86%.
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayern München 71% and Werder Bremen 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayern München 100% | Werder Bremen 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayern München 2.51 xG and Werder Bremen 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayern München attack 1.836 / defence 1.010 | Werder Bremen attack 0.871 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.452. Bayern München carry an above-average attack strength of 1.836 — their λ of 2.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 7 Bayern München games / 7 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayern München 62% | Draw 22% | Werder Bremen 16%. Fair-value odds: Bayern München 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Werder Bremen 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.51 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayern München as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bayern München 33% | Werder Bremen 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayern München vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Allianz Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayern München 62% | Draw 22% | Werder Bremen 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 68% | xG Bayern München 2.51 / Werder Bremen 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Bayern München attack 1.836 / def 1.010 | Werder Bremen attack 0.871 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Bayern München xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Werder Bremen xG
68%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayern München vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Bayern München vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 November 2020 at Allianz Arena.
What was the final score in Bayern München vs Werder Bremen?
Bayern München 1 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is Bayern München vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Arena.
What competition is Bayern München vs Werder Bremen part of?
Bayern München vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayern München vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Bayern München a 62% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Bayern München and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Bayern München vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Werder Bremen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bayern München and Werder Bremen in?
Bayern München (all comps): 6W-0D-1L in 7 | 2.57 PPG | GF 3.86 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-4D-1L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.29 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bayern München's attack at 1.84x the league average against Werder Bremen's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Bayern München's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.50
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Bayern München xG
Total xG
3.79
1.28
Werder Bremen xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
8%
12.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
1%
78.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayern München vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Bayern München and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Bayern München and 1.28 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayern München vs Werder Bremen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bayern München come into this having played 7 games, going 6W 0D 1L for 2.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Bayern München, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Werder Bremen sit at 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayern München carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bayern München's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.57 PPG overall — Bayern München are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Werder Bremen have taken 1.67 points per game from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bayern München are averaging 3.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayern München have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayern München
Early Season
Werder Bremen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayern München and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Bayern München have gone 6W 0D 1L in their last 7 games (2.57 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 2W 4D 1L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayern München at home or Werder Bremen away?
Bayern München's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayern München at home: 3.00 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bayern München and Werder Bremen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bayern München have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2022, when Bayern München won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayern München's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bayern München
1
Draws
1
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayern München have won 8, Werder Bremen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bayern München and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Werder Bremen 0-3 Bayern München.
Who has won more matches between Bayern München and Werder Bremen?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bayern München at 33%, Werder Bremen at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Bayern München and 33% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayern München keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayern München home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayern München play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Bayern München's games and 100% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayern München vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Bayern München's matches and 33% of Werder Bremen's.
Do Bayern München and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Bayern München have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayern München and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 8, as Bayern München and Werder Bremen drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 2.51 xG and Werder Bremen 1.28 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bayern München fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.84 / defence 1.01 against Werder Bremen attack 0.87 / defence 1.05, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayern München 62% | Draw 22% | Werder Bremen 16%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 100%, Werder Bremen 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayern München's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.57 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 5.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.