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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out VfL Wolfsburg 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat VfL Wolfsburg 3-2 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 2.44 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.21 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.64 / defence 0.68 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.26 / defence 0.83, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayern München 64% | Draw 18% | VfL Wolfsburg 17%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 78%, VfL Wolfsburg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayern München's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bayern München (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights