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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bayern München cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over VfB Stuttgart.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat VfB Stuttgart 4-2 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 3.16 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.92 xG, a combined 5.08. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Bayern München beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.74 / defence 0.88 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.49 / defence 1.07, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayern München 63% | Draw 16% | VfB Stuttgart 21%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 88%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 75% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 82% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 86%, VfB Stuttgart 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayern München's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bayern München (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights