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Bayern München cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC St. Pauli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat FC St. Pauli 3-1 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 2.93 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.78 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.87 / defence 0.73 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.72 / defence 0.95, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayern München 81% | Draw 12% | FC St. Pauli 7%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 82%, FC St. Pauli 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayern München's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights