Bayern München vs 1. FC Heidenheim – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bayern München's attack rating (1.32) and 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus Bayern München's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 3-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
73%
1.36
18%
5.59
9%
11.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
3 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.69
Bayern München xG
Total xG
3.61
0.92
1. FC Heidenheim xG
1.36
73%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
11.33
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
7%
14.70
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
1%
166.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayern München vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Bayern München and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 2.69 expected goals for Bayern München and 0.92 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayern München vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.