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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat Bayern München 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg beat Bayern München 1-2 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 4.00 xG and FC Augsburg 0.88 xG, a combined 4.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bayern München fell 3.0 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.88 / defence 0.86 against FC Augsburg attack 0.71 / defence 1.23, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayern München 89% | Draw 8% | FC Augsburg 3%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 89%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 3% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 87%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 72% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 85%, FC Augsburg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayern München's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights