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Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out Werder Bremen 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat Werder Bremen 1-0 at BayArena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.07 xG and Werder Bremen 1.13 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bayer Leverkusen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Werder Bremen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Werder Bremen attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 57% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 18%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 63%, Werder Bremen 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights