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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over VfL Bochum.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat VfL Bochum 3-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.09 xG and VfL Bochum 1.09 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.15 / defence 0.86 against VfL Bochum attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 60% | Draw 22% | VfL Bochum 18%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 70%, VfL Bochum 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

VfL Bochum's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights