Bayer Leverkusen 2-4 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to BayArena to face Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Bayer Leverkusen's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bayer Leverkusen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, VfB Stuttgart in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 3W, VfB Stuttgart 2W, 4D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 1–3 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 63% and VfB Stuttgart 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bayer Leverkusen 63% | VfB Stuttgart 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.02 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.099 / defence 0.794 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.966 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.958 / away 1.349. Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Bayer Leverkusen games / 41 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 60% | Draw 21% | VfB Stuttgart 19%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | VfB Stuttgart 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 70% | VfB Stuttgart 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 60% | Draw 21% | VfB Stuttgart 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.02 / VfB Stuttgart 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.099 / def 0.794 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.966 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.958 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.03
VfB Stuttgart xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 4 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 60% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (9 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 3W | Draws 4 | VfB Stuttgart 2W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bayer Leverkusen's attack rating (1.10) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (0.97x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.73
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.05
1.03
VfB Stuttgart xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
13%
7.50
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
3%
39.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.03 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bayer Leverkusen's recent record stands at 21W 9D 11L from 41 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 13L across 41 games — 1.66 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Bayer Leverkusen against 1.66 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bayer Leverkusen have managed 12W 4D 4L from 20 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 7W 5D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.98 scored and 1.51 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 21W 9D 11L in their last 41 games (1.76 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 20W 8D 13L in their last 41 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 2.00 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 1-4 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bayer Leverkusen
4
Draws
3
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 2-4 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Bayer Leverkusen, 75% for VfB Stuttgart — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Bayer Leverkusen and 90% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 75% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 90% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Bayer Leverkusen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Bayer Leverkusen 2-4 at BayArena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.02 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.03 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.03 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.10 / defence 0.79 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.97 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 60% | Draw 21% | VfB Stuttgart 19%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a VfB Stuttgart win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 63%, VfB Stuttgart 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.76 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.