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Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SC Freiburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat SC Freiburg 2-0 at BayArena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.50 xG and SC Freiburg 1.07 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SC Freiburg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.04 / defence 0.79 against SC Freiburg attack 0.87 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 47% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 27%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 63%, SC Freiburg 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.56. That form edge translated into the three points. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights