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Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 6-0 hammering of 1. FC Heidenheim.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat 1. FC Heidenheim 6-0 at BayArena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.92 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 0.81 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.10 / defence 0.73 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.75 / defence 1.13, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 63% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Heidenheim 15%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 63%, 1. FC Heidenheim 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.74. Form held, and they took the win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights