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Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Augsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat FC Augsburg 2-0 at BayArena, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.35 xG and FC Augsburg 1.07 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Augsburg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.08 / defence 0.78 against FC Augsburg attack 0.94 / defence 0.84, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 43% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 29%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 67%, FC Augsburg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights