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Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.41 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.67 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 32% | Draw 25% | Eintracht Frankfurt 43%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Bayer Leverkusen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 64%, Eintracht Frankfurt 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.94 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights