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Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.59 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.03 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.29 / defence 0.86 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 71% | Draw 16% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 13%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 72%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights