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Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over 1. FC Köln.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat 1. FC Köln 2-0 at BayArena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.19 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.90 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Köln landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.21 / defence 0.80 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.80 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 66% | Draw 20% | 1. FC Köln 14%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 64%, 1. FC Köln 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.96 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights