1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Werder Bremen at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim host Werder Bremen at PreZero Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 3 March 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Guide
1899 Hoffenheim — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Werder Bremen stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Werder Bremen — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, Werder Bremen 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 1899 Hoffenheim 3–2 Werder Bremen — a 1899 Hoffenheim win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
1899 Hoffenheim in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 75% and Werder Bremen 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 67% | Werder Bremen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.17 xG and Werder Bremen 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.897 / defence 1.204 | Werder Bremen attack 0.897 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.343. 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Werder Bremen's projected output up. Data: built from 1899 Hoffenheim's last 57 games and Werder Bremen's last 57.
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 28% | Draw 30% | Werder Bremen 42%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 3.52 | Draw 3.34 | Werder Bremen 2.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Werder Bremen as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 home games and Werder Bremen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1899 Hoffenheim 90% (last 10 home games) | Werder Bremen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 28% | Draw 30% | Werder Bremen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.17 / Werder Bremen 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.897 / def 1.204 | Werder Bremen attack 0.897 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Werder Bremen xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen FAQs
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen?
1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 28% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1899 Hoffenheim's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1899 Hoffenheim's last 57 games and Werder Bremen's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
28%
3.52
30%
3.34
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
2.62
1.45
Werder Bremen xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
7%
15.01
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.45 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1899 Hoffenheim's recent record stands at 18W 12D 27L from 57 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 27L across 57 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.16 PPG, Werder Bremen on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1899 Hoffenheim have managed 9W 6D 13L from their last 28 home games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 8W 7D 13L across their last 28 away games, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.46 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 63%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim (Home) vs Werder Bremen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen Form FAQs
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 18W 12D 27L in their last 57 games (1.16 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 18W 12D 27L in their last 57 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or Werder Bremen away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.18 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from February 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Feb 2021, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 1899 Hoffenheim 4-0 Werder Bremen.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
1899 Hoffenheim
0
Draws
3
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 7, Werder Bremen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Werder Bremen 2-0 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1899 Hoffenheim at 79%, Werder Bremen at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 54% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 61% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 54% of Werder Bremen's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of 1899 Hoffenheim's recent matches and 54% of Werder Bremen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1899 Hoffenheim defy the odds to beat Werder Bremen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat Werder Bremen 2-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.17 xG and Werder Bremen 1.45 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.90 / defence 1.20 against Werder Bremen attack 0.90 / defence 0.80, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 28% | Draw 30% | Werder Bremen 42%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual 1899 Hoffenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 67%, Werder Bremen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.16 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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