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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg finished level at 1-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 2.73 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.00 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.21 / defence 0.84 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.32, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 74% | Draw 16% | VfL Wolfsburg 11%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 63%, VfL Wolfsburg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.37 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights