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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 3-3 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 2.05 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.86 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.08 / defence 0.87 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.48 / defence 1.11, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 43% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 36%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 65%, VfB Stuttgart 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.37 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights