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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1899 Hoffenheim cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1899 Hoffenheim beat 1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.14 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.38 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.74 / defence 1.19 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.75 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 31% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Heidenheim 42%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual 1899 Hoffenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 61%, 1. FC Heidenheim 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.02 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights