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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1899 Hoffenheim and 1. FC Heidenheim share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 25, as 1899 Hoffenheim and 1. FC Heidenheim drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.67 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.93 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.88 / defence 1.33 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.03 / defence 1.24, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 33% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Heidenheim 44%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 71%, 1. FC Heidenheim 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.22 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights