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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 27, as 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.08 xG and FC Augsburg 1.64 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.84 / defence 1.23 against FC Augsburg attack 0.94 / defence 0.82, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 24% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 50%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 68%, FC Augsburg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.20 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights