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Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1899 Hoffenheim.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Frankfurt beat 1899 Hoffenheim 1-3 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.37 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.64 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 31% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Frankfurt 43%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 60%, Eintracht Frankfurt 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights