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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as 1899 Hoffenheim edge out Bayer Leverkusen 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1899 Hoffenheim beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 2.37 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.69 xG, a combined 4.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bayer Leverkusen landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.35 / defence 0.97 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.21 / defence 0.98, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 52% | Draw 21% | Bayer Leverkusen 27%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 62%, Bayer Leverkusen 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with 1899 Hoffenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights