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Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees VfL Wolfsburg travel to RheinEnergieStadion to take on 1. FC Köln. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 January 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Köln — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln at RheinEnergieStadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — 1. FC Köln are significantly better at RheinEnergieStadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. VfL Wolfsburg are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for 1. FC Köln, 4 for VfL Wolfsburg and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 60% and VfL Wolfsburg 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 55% | VfL Wolfsburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 2.14 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.935 / defence 1.125 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.929 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.474. VfL Wolfsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.385 — this is suppressing 1. FC Köln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 1. FC Köln games / 53 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 50% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 26%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | VfL Wolfsburg 3.85. 1. FC Köln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Köln as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VfL Wolfsburg (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 80% | VfL Wolfsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (9 meetings): 1. FC Köln 2W | Draws 3 | VfL Wolfsburg 4W • Goals trend: 3.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: 1. FC Köln 14 – 16 VfL Wolfsburg • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 56% | Win rates: 1. FC Köln 22% / Draw 33% / VfL Wolfsburg 44% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours VfL Wolfsburg (historical win rate 44%) but Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln as more likely (home 50% / draw 24% / away 26%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.33 goals/game (56% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.68 (71% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 71% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• 1. FC Köln (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L • VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L • 1. FC Köln home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | CS 1 • VfL Wolfsburg away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | CS 2 • Form edge: VfL Wolfsburg lead by 0.50 PPG (1.10 vs 0.60) • xG vs form (1. FC Köln): Poisson xG of 2.14 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.10 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (VfL Wolfsburg): Poisson xG of 1.54 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.6 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.68 (71% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates 1. FC Köln 8/10, VfL Wolfsburg 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 71% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours VfL Wolfsburg on PPG but Poisson rates 1. FC Köln higher (50% vs 26% for VfL Wolfsburg) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 50% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG 1. FC Köln 2.14 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.935 / def 1.125 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.929 / def 1.385 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.54
VfL Wolfsburg xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 30 January 2026 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg?
1. FC Köln 1 - 0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 50% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both 1. FC Köln and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and VfL Wolfsburg?
• Record (9 meetings): 1. FC Köln 2W | Draws 3 | VfL Wolfsburg 4W • Goals trend: 3.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: 1. FC Köln 14 – 16 VfL Wolfsburg • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 56% | Win rates: 1. FC Köln 22% / Draw 33% / VfL Wolfsburg 44% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours VfL Wolfsburg (historical win rate 44%) but Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln as more likely (home 50% / draw 24% / away 26%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.33 goals/game (56% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.68 (71% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 71% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are 1. FC Köln and VfL Wolfsburg in?
• 1. FC Köln (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L • VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L • 1. FC Köln home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | CS 1 • VfL Wolfsburg away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | CS 2 • Form edge: VfL Wolfsburg lead by 0.50 PPG (1.10 vs 0.60) • xG vs form (1. FC Köln): Poisson xG of 2.14 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.10 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (VfL Wolfsburg): Poisson xG of 1.54 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.6 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.68 (71% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates 1. FC Köln 8/10, VfL Wolfsburg 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 71% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours VfL Wolfsburg on PPG but Poisson rates 1. FC Köln higher (50% vs 26% for VfL Wolfsburg) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about 1. FC Köln vs VfL Wolfsburg?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture