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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Köln edge out VfL Wolfsburg 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Köln beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-0 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 2.14 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.54 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Köln fell 1.1 short of their projected output. VfL Wolfsburg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.93 / defence 1.39, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 50% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 26%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 55%, VfL Wolfsburg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.53 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights