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Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Köln host Hamburger SV at RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Köln — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's home record at RheinEnergieStadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hamburger SV stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
1. FC Köln carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for 1. FC Köln, 2 for Hamburger SV and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 0–1 with Hamburger SV winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 55% versus Hamburger SV 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 52% | Hamburger SV 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.56 xG and Hamburger SV 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.980 / defence 1.091 | Hamburger SV attack 0.594 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.490. Data: 8 1. FC Köln games / 8 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 51% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 23%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Hamburger SV 4.35. 1. FC Köln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Köln are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Köln 70% | Hamburger SV 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Köln 0W | Draws 0 | Hamburger SV 2W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: 1. FC Köln 1 – 3 Hamburger SV • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: 1. FC Köln 0% / Draw 0% / Hamburger SV 100% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Hamburger SV (historical win rate 100%) but Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln as more likely (home 51% / draw 26% / away 23%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.52 (46% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 49% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• 1. FC Köln (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L • Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L • 1. FC Köln home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | CS 2 • Hamburger SV away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | CS 5 • Form edge: 1. FC Köln lead by 0.60 PPG (1.70 vs 1.10) • xG vs form (1. FC Köln): Poisson xG of 1.56 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.80 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Hamburger SV): Poisson projects 0.96 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.52 (46% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 49% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on 1. FC Köln — 1. FC Köln at 51% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 51% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.56 / Hamburger SV 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.980 / def 1.091 | Hamburger SV attack 0.594 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.490 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Hamburger SV xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV?
1. FC Köln 4 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV part of?
1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 51% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV?
• Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Köln 0W | Draws 0 | Hamburger SV 2W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: 1. FC Köln 1 – 3 Hamburger SV • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: 1. FC Köln 0% / Draw 0% / Hamburger SV 100% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Hamburger SV (historical win rate 100%) but Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln as more likely (home 51% / draw 26% / away 23%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.52 (46% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 49% — no strong aligned signal
What form are 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV in?
• 1. FC Köln (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L • Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L • 1. FC Köln home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | CS 2 • Hamburger SV away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | CS 5 • Form edge: 1. FC Köln lead by 0.60 PPG (1.70 vs 1.10) • xG vs form (1. FC Köln): Poisson xG of 1.56 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.80 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Hamburger SV): Poisson projects 0.96 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.52 (46% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 49% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on 1. FC Köln — 1. FC Köln at 51% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture