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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant 1. FC Köln run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Hamburger SV.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Köln beat Hamburger SV 4-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.56 xG and Hamburger SV 0.96 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.98 / defence 1.09 against Hamburger SV attack 0.59 / defence 1.07, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 51% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 23%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 52%, Hamburger SV 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Hamburger SV's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.71 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights