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1. FC Köln cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Werder Bremen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Köln beat Werder Bremen 3-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.43 xG and Werder Bremen 1.51 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.94 / defence 1.20 against Werder Bremen attack 0.86 / defence 0.90, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 36% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 39%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual 1. FC Köln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 56%, Werder Bremen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.42 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights