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Dominant 1. FC Köln run riot with a 4-1 hammering of SC Freiburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Köln beat SC Freiburg 4-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.28 xG and SC Freiburg 1.66 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against SC Freiburg attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 29% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 45%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual 1. FC Köln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 51%, SC Freiburg 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.83 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights