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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as RB Leipzig edge out 1. FC Köln 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Leipzig beat 1. FC Köln 1-2 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.22 xG and RB Leipzig 1.52 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.87 / defence 1.04 against RB Leipzig attack 1.02 / defence 0.87, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 29% | Draw 28% | RB Leipzig 43%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 54%, RB Leipzig 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

RB Leipzig's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.56 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights