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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Köln and FC St. Pauli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 13, as 1. FC Köln and FC St. Pauli drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.80 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.41 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Köln fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.15 / defence 1.27 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.77 / defence 0.96, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 46% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 30%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 54%, FC St. Pauli 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights