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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Heidenheim cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1. FC Köln.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Heidenheim beat 1. FC Köln 1-3 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.85 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.56 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Köln fell 0.9 short of their projected output. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.97 / defence 1.19 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 45% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Heidenheim 33%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual 1. FC Heidenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 58%, 1. FC Heidenheim 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Heidenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights