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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg finished level at 1-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.79 xG and FC Augsburg 1.64 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.04 / defence 1.14 against FC Augsburg attack 0.95 / defence 1.06, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 42% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 35%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 55%, FC Augsburg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights