1. FC Köln 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Köln host Eintracht Frankfurt at RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Köln have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 2W 1D 0L from 3 Bundesliga matches — 2.33 PPG. Last five: D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Eintracht Frankfurt's 2.33 PPG return is 2.33 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1. FC Köln register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Köln in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 67% and Eintracht Frankfurt 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Köln 67% | Eintracht Frankfurt 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.31 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.951 / defence 1.485 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.019 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.470. Data: 3 1. FC Köln games / 3 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 20% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 56%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 2.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 67% | Eintracht Frankfurt 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 20% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.31 / Eintracht Frankfurt 2.23 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.951 / def 1.485 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.019 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
2.23
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 18 October 2020 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
1. FC Köln 1 - 1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 20% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-L. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (0.95) and Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 2.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
20%
5.06
24%
4.12
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
0 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.54
2.23
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
5.06
20%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
11%
9.25
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
2%
46.85
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 2.23 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 3L record — L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form line: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, 2.33 PPG, last five D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Eintracht Frankfurt are the form team by 2.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Köln.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Early Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2023, when 1. FC Köln won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Köln's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
1. FC Köln
5
Draws
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 3, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Köln at 67%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for 1. FC Köln and 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of 1. FC Köln's games and 100% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 4, as 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.31 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.23 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.95 / defence 1.49 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.02 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 20% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 56%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 67%, Eintracht Frankfurt 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Köln conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Frankfurt managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.