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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Eintracht Frankfurt defy the odds to beat 1. FC Köln 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Frankfurt beat 1. FC Köln 3-4 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 2.07 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.01 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 2.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.10 / defence 1.07 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.25 / defence 1.13, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 41% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Frankfurt 39%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Eintracht Frankfurt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 54%, Eintracht Frankfurt 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.70 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights