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Bayern München cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1. FC Köln.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat 1. FC Köln 1-3 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.02 xG and Bayern München 2.91 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.89 / defence 1.20 against Bayern München attack 1.67 / defence 0.66, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 10% | Draw 15% | Bayern München 75%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 52%, Bayern München 84%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Bayern München's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.56. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights