🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out 1. FC Köln 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat 1. FC Köln 1-2 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.53 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.82 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.02 / defence 1.16 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 33% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 45%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 56%, Bayer Leverkusen 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights