VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to Volkswagen Arena to take on VfL Wolfsburg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2027, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 3W 4D 3L at Volkswagen Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Volkswagen Arena this season.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, VfL Wolfsburg have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for VfL Wolfsburg, 0 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 4–1 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
VfL Wolfsburg in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 70% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 61% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 2.51 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.244 / defence 1.122 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.992 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.158. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing VfL Wolfsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 VfL Wolfsburg games / 43 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 64% | Draw 19% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 18%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5.56. The model has a clear lean to VfL Wolfsburg (64%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.51 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Wolfsburg at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.80 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 40% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 64% | Draw 19% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 67% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 2.51 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.244 / def 1.122 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.992 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
67%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Volkswagen Arena.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 64% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (2 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 2W | Draws 0 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating (1.24) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
64%
1.57
19%
5.33
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.80
1.29
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
8%
12.27
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
1%
69.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.29 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfL Wolfsburg's recent record stands at 12W 13D 21L from 46 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 22L across 46 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.07 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VfL Wolfsburg have managed 5W 7D 11L from 23 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 5W 4D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.39 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 14W 10D 22L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 0.96 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
VfL Wolfsburg
0
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 2 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when VfL Wolfsburg 4-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfL Wolfsburg at 65%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for VfL Wolfsburg and 70% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg have failed to score in 30% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 70% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 70% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.