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Shock result as Preußen Münster defy the odds to beat VfL Bochum 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preußen Münster beat VfL Bochum 1-2 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.59 xG and Preußen Münster 1.32 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 1.00 / defence 0.95 against Preußen Münster attack 1.15 / defence 1.10, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 43% | Draw 26% | Preußen Münster 31%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Preußen Münster win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 49%, Preußen Münster 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Bochum's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Preußen Münster's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfL Bochum 0.70 PPG, Preußen Münster 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preußen Münster win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights