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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VfL Bochum and Karlsruher SC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Bochum and Karlsruher SC finished level at 2-2 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.80 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.21 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.94 / defence 1.44, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 51% | Draw 23% | Karlsruher SC 26%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 48%, Karlsruher SC 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Bochum's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Karlsruher SC arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights