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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VfL Bochum and Hannover 96 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 33, as VfL Bochum and Hannover 96 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.44 xG and Hannover 96 1.93 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hannover 96 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 1.11 / defence 1.14 against Hannover 96 attack 1.33 / defence 0.82, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 28% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 48%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 48%, Hannover 96 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Bochum's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Hannover 96's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights