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Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out VfL Bochum 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat VfL Bochum 0-1 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.49 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.50 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VfL Bochum fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.90 / defence 1.02 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.14 / defence 1.22, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 38% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 38%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Fortuna Düsseldorf win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 50%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Bochum's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.65. Form held, and they took the win. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights