VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates VfL Bochum at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vonovia Ruhrstadion plays host to VfL Bochum versus Energie Cottbus in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 27). Kick-off: Sunday 21 March 2027 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
VfL Bochum have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, VfL Bochum have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Energie Cottbus (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Energie Cottbus's away record over their last 6 away games: 1W 3D 2L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in VfL Bochum's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for VfL Bochum, 0 for Energie Cottbus and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Oct 2026, ended VfL Bochum 2–1 Energie Cottbus — a VfL Bochum win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
VfL Bochum goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 11 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Energie Cottbus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 11 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Bochum 54% and Energie Cottbus 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Bochum 36% | Energie Cottbus 64%). Note also that Energie Cottbus surrender HT leads in 75% of cases while VfL Bochum recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 1.33 xG and Energie Cottbus 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 0.777 / defence 1.028 | Energie Cottbus attack 0.948 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.161. VfL Bochum's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.33. Data: built from VfL Bochum's last 45 games and Energie Cottbus's last 11.
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 41% | Draw 28% | Energie Cottbus 31%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 2.47 | Draw 3.51 | Energie Cottbus 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Bochum at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Bochum if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though recent form (VfL Bochum's last 10 home games and Energie Cottbus's last 6 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfL Bochum 70% (last 10 home games) | Energie Cottbus 50% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 March 2027 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 41% | Draw 28% | Energie Cottbus 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG VfL Bochum 1.33 / Energie Cottbus 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 0.777 / def 1.028 | Energie Cottbus attack 0.948 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: VfL Bochum (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Energie Cottbus xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus FAQs
What time does VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus kick off?
VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 21 March 2027 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
Where is VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus part of?
VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 41% chance of winning, Energie Cottbus a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making VfL Bochum the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both VfL Bochum and Energie Cottbus will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfL Bochum's attack rating (0.78) and Energie Cottbus's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Energie Cottbus's attack (0.95x) against VfL Bochum's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from VfL Bochum's last 45 games and Energie Cottbus's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Bochum Win
41%
2.47
28%
3.51
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
2.46
1.13
Energie Cottbus xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
8%
12.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and Energie Cottbus expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 1.13 for Energie Cottbus, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, VfL Bochum have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 4W 2D 5L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Energie Cottbus's form line: 2W 5D 4L from 11 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for VfL Bochum against 1.00 for Energie Cottbus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, VfL Bochum have posted 0.83 PPG from their last 6 home games (1W 2D 3L). That actually lags their 1.27 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Energie Cottbus have gone 1W 3D 2L from their last 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
VfL Bochum are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Energie Cottbus are on 1.64 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Energie Cottbus in 73%.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Blended
Energie Cottbus
Blended
VfL Bochum (Home) vs Energie Cottbus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfL Bochum
Blended
Energie Cottbus
Blended
❓ VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus Form FAQs
What form are VfL Bochum and Energie Cottbus in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 games (1.27 PPG), while Energie Cottbus have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Bochum at home or Energie Cottbus away?
Energie Cottbus's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Bochum at home: 0.83 PPG; Energie Cottbus away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 1 H2H match between VfL Bochum and Energie Cottbus, the earliest from October 2026. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 1 Meetings
1
VfL Bochum
0
Draws
0
Energie Cottbus
Recent Meetings
❓ VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and Energie Cottbus?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, VfL Bochum have won 1, Energie Cottbus have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and Energie Cottbus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Energie Cottbus 1-2 VfL Bochum.
Who has won more matches between VfL Bochum and Energie Cottbus?
VfL Bochum have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 1 head-to-head match in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Energie Cottbus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Bochum 50%, Energie Cottbus 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (VfL Bochum) and 67% (Energie Cottbus).
On the defensive side: Energie Cottbus in 33%; VfL Bochum have failed to score in 50% of games; Energie Cottbus in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / Energie Cottbus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfL Bochum vs Energie Cottbus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfL Bochum and Energie Cottbus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of VfL Bochum's recent matches and 50% of Energie Cottbus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are VfL Bochum and Energie Cottbus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of VfL Bochum's recent games and 67% of Energie Cottbus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfL Bochum and Energie Cottbus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of VfL Bochum's recent matches and 83% of Energie Cottbus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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